Malta is on course to welcome 4.5 million tourists this year, reaching a target that the government had set for 2035. Tourism minister Jo Etienne Abela said that the goal may now need to be revised.
“I think the target for 2035 might well be reached this year,” Abela told Times of Malta when asked whether the government would revise the figure or cap arrivals.
He stopped short of confirming any change. “Strategies and visions are live things and we need to ensure we react to the realities that are unfolding,” he said. “But, certainly, this is something we will have to consider.”
Nine years ahead of schedule
The 4.5 million target comes from Malta Vision 2050, launched last year. It aimed to shift tourism towards “premium offerings that prioritise quality over quantity” by 2035.
The plan also sought to nearly double spending per night and almost triple tourism’s annual economic contribution.
Arrivals have outpaced those goals. Malta welcomed about 4 million visitors last year, and Deloitte told the Malta Hotels and Restaurants Association (MHRA) Malta Hospitality Forum that the country is on track to reach 4.5 million in 2026.
First-quarter arrivals rose 13%, matching only Cyprus in the Mediterranean.
Fuller planes, lighter wallets
The Deloitte survey also showed the downside. Although arrivals and guest nights increased in the first quarter of 2026, visitors stayed for fewer nights and spent less.
Average spending per tourist fell 1.1% to €725. Overall tourism revenue grew through higher visitor numbers rather than increased spending.
That runs counter to Vision 2050’s goal. More tourists are arriving, but each is spending slightly less.
Checks Malta cannot control
The forecast is based on a quarter that ended before Europe’s new border rules fully took effect. The Entry/Exit System (EES) launched progressively from 12 October 2025 and became fully operational on 10 April 2026, replacing passport stamping across most of Europe.
Malta is one of 29 participating countries. Non-EU travellers now register biometric and travel document data when entering the bloc.
Neither Abela nor Deloitte links arrivals to the EES. However, the 13% growth occurred while the system was only partly deployed, making this summer the first peak season under full operation.
Malta is more exposed to delays at major European hubs than at its own airport. Travellers are processed at their first point of entry, so longer queues elsewhere could reduce connecting traffic to the island.
With no overland alternative, Malta depends entirely on air travel.
Any disruption would most affect short breaks, where border delays consume a larger share of the trip.
Second gate still shut
The European Travel Information and Authorisation System (ETIAS) has not yet launched, and applications are not open. The EU will announce a start date several months in advance.
Once introduced, visa-exempt travellers will need a €20 authorisation valid for up to three years or until their passport expires. Most applications should be processed within minutes, although some may take up to 30 days.
It remains unclear whether the extra pre-travel step will discourage late bookings, which often drive short city breaks.
Countries using the EES may also introduce National Facilitation Programmes for frequent non-EU travellers. Such schemes would mainly benefit repeat visitors rather than the first-time arrivals driving Malta’s growth.
Blame beyond the island
Abela attributed lower spending to changing travel habits rather than Malta’s tourism strategy.
“There is a general trend around the world that tourists are flying more but they’re flying for shorter periods,” he said.
He also cautioned against applying Deloitte’s findings to the entire industry. The audit was “good and certainly important”, he noted, but covered “a particular sector” and should not be generalised.
Diving for higher spend
The government hopes niche tourism will raise visitor spending. Abela said that the sector has “flourished” and that Malta is now “gearing up to the shift to quality tourism” through smaller, higher-value markets, highlighting diving.
“The diving industry in Malta and Gozo is already thriving,” he said. “We need to actually elevate it more and make it more robust.”
He added that other profitable niches would also receive investment.
Summer settles question
Malta appears set to hit its headline arrivals target nearly a decade early, even as visitor spending falls. Ministers must now decide whether 4.5 million becomes a ceiling, a floor or a new benchmark.
The second half of 2026 will provide the first real test under the fully operational EES.
For now, Abela has committed only to considering a revision, while the government continues to pursue higher-value tourism through niche markets rather than lower visitor numbers.