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Irregular border crossings drop 37% in first half of 2026

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Irregular border crossings into the European Union (EU) fell 37% in the first half of 2026, according to preliminary Frontex figures released on 9 July.

More than 49,000 crossings were recorded between January and June, down from the same period last year. The European Border and Coast Guard Agency attributed the decline to sustained cooperation with partner countries and preventive measures in key departure states.

The agency said that fewer boats are leaving for Europe in the first place, rather than being stopped at the border.

The figures count detections, not people, so the same person may be recorded more than once if they cross at several points along the external border.

Mediterranean routes still carry load

The Eastern and Central Mediterranean routes together accounted for more than 60% of all irregular entries into the EU.

The Eastern Mediterranean was the busiest route, with 16,643 detections in the first six months of 2026, down 20%. June accounted for 4,027 detections.

The Libya–Crete corridor made up more than half of the route’s detections, ahead of the land borders with Türkiye and arrivals on the Aegean islands. Frontex expects sea crossings to increase as summer weather improves.

Afghan, Sudanese and Bangladeshi nationals were the most frequently recorded on the route.

The Central Mediterranean recorded the steepest decline, with 14,340 detections, down 52%, including 2,707 in June. Libya remained the main departure point, while renewed clashes in Al-Zawiya highlighted continuing instability along the western coast.

Bangladeshi, Somali and Sudanese nationals were the most frequently recorded on that route.

Algeria bucks trend

The Western Mediterranean was the only major route to record an increase, with 7,860 detections in the first half of 2026, up 17% year on year. June accounted for 995 detections.

Algeria remained the main departure country, while the Balearic Islands received nearly half of all arrivals.

Frontex attributed the rise to displacement rather than higher migration, with tighter controls in Morocco and on the Western African and Central Mediterranean routes redirecting departures to Algeria.

Algerian, Malian and Moroccan nationals were the most frequently recorded.

Guardia Civil patrol vessel moored at a Spanish port with the city skyline and calm waterfront in the background
Image courtesy of Stephan Leuzinger via Pexels

Atlantic route thins out

The Western African route recorded the sharpest decline, with 3,714 detections, down 67%, including 584 in June.

Frontex attributed the drop largely to preventive measures by Mauritania, supported more recently by Senegal and The Gambia in cooperation with Spain and the EU.

The agency nevertheless described the route as volatile. Calmer seas have driven a seasonal increase in departures towards the Canary Islands, while political uncertainty in Senegal could raise migratory pressure in the coming months.

Senegalese, Gambian and Moroccan nationals were the most frequently recorded.

Elsewhere, the Western Balkan route logged 4,009 detections, down 24%, led by Turkish, Afghan and Egyptian nationals. The eastern land borders recorded 2,633 detections, down 39%, with Ukrainian, Afghan and Pakistani nationals most frequently recorded.

Channel crossings fall by nearly half

Detected Channel crossings towards the UK fell 44% to 18,367 in the first half of 2026, including 3,116 in June. The figures include both successful crossings and attempts stopped before departure.

The UK–France agreement signed in April is expected to strengthen patrols along the French coast in the coming months.

Sudanese, Eritrean and Somali nationals were the most frequently recorded.

Aerial view of a long sandy coastline with rolling waves, dunes and a distant coastal town
Image courtesy of Daniele Mason via Pexels

Deaths at sea keep climbing

Fewer arrivals have not meant fewer deaths. Nearly 1,300 people have died in the Mediterranean so far this year, according to the International Organization for Migration.

Frontex warned that smuggling networks continue to send people to sea in overcrowded, unseaworthy boats.

“Fewer boats are setting out towards Europe, and that is the result of sustained cooperation with our partners in the region,” said Frontex Executive Director Hans Leijtens. 

“But behind every number is a person, and people are still dying at sea. Our officers remain on the ground at the external borders, supporting member states and helping to save lives.”

The agency has 3,800 officers deployed at the EU’s external borders.

New screening rules take effect

The first half of the year also saw the EU Pact on Migration and Asylum come into force, introducing a standardised screening process at the external borders.

Frontex officers support member states by establishing arrivals’ nationality, collecting biometric data and verifying documents.

Aerial view of a maritime rescue crew transferring a person between an inflatable boat and a rescue vessel
Image courtesy of Atmadeep Das via Pexels

Middle East remains wild card

Frontex points to the Middle East as its main source of uncertainty. The ceasefire reached in June raises hopes of gradual stabilisation across the region.

The conflict has displaced large numbers of people, and its wider economic consequences risk adding to migration pressures in the region and beyond.

That has not yet produced a significant change at the EU’s external borders. Frontex says it continues to monitor developments closely.

Summer sets next test

The second half of the year will test whether the decline holds. Frontex expects arrivals on the sea corridors from Libya and Türkiye to rise as weather conditions improve.

The Western African route offers little reassurance either. Calm seas have already driven a seasonal rise in departures towards the Canary Islands, and political uncertainty in Senegal may add to migratory pressure in the coming months.

On the Channel, the April agreement between the UK and France is expected to strengthen patrols along the French coast, with the effect on the 18,367 detected exits yet to show in the data.

Whatever the routes do next, the 3,800 officers at the external borders remain in place, and nearly 1,300 people have already died in the Mediterranean this year.


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