Migration trends across the European Union’s (EU) borders are evolving. Despite a decrease in overall irregular entries into the EU, Frontex reports a significant 195% surge along the eastern border, particularly in Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland.

This shift underscores the resilience of EU border security in the face of global instability. 

Meanwhile, other routes into the EU have seen fewer entries. This shift shows changing migration patterns and adds pressure on eastern EU countries to handle border security during global instability.

Irregular crossings decline overall, but East sees spike

Frontex, the EU border agency, reports a 43% drop in irregular crossings in the first ten months of 2024, totaling 191,900 entries. The main routes, especially the Central Mediterranean and Western Balkans, saw large decreases of 62% and 80%.

However, the eastern border stands out with 15,237 irregular entries, almost twice as many as in the same period last year. In October alone, 1,611 entries were recorded on the EU’s eastern border—more than on the Western Mediterranean route.

Most migrants on this route come from Ukraine, Somalia, and Eritrea, driven by conflict and economic needs.

Central, Western routes reflect lower crossings

While the EU’s eastern border faces increased migration pressure, entries through the Central Mediterranean route have dropped sharply, with only 47,700 entries—a 64% decrease from last year.

The Western Balkan route saw the biggest drop, with crossings down 79% to about 17,000.

Frontex attributes these decreases to the success of stronger cooperation among EU countries, enhanced border surveillance, and stricter controls by border agencies. 

This success story in reducing irregular crossings is a testament to the effectiveness of EU-wide collaboration.

In contrast, the Western African route saw a large increase earlier in the year, holding steady at over 30,600 entries by September—double last year’s total.

Despite this, overall migration has declined across most routes, reflecting the changing complexity of migration patterns.

Eastern border security faces new pressures

As Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland handle rising migration along the EU’s eastern border, the increase highlights both logistical and humanitarian challenges.

Latvia, for example, has strengthened border controls and added more law enforcement. This influx, driven by worsening conditions in some countries, shows a shift in migration routes to the east due to geographic and political factors.

Frontex supports these efforts, with over 3,000 officers assisting national border agencies in high-activity areas. This joint approach seeks to balance security needs with humanitarian concerns.

Changing policies for migrants, local communities

The rise in irregular migration affects different groups entering the EU. Short-term travelers may face stricter visa policies, possibly needing more documents or extra checks as border authorities focus on security.

The upcoming European Travel Information and Authorization System (ETIAS), set to launch soon, promises to streamline entry for non-EU visitors, making it both smoother and more secure for valid travelers. This development offers hope for a more efficient and secure border control system.

For long-term migrants, the focus on irregular routes could mean slower processing times or additional immigration steps, especially for those from countries with higher irregular entry rates.

Schengen visa policies may also adjust to address regional risks more directly, reflecting the increased monitoring along the EU’s eastern borders.

Adapting to new pressures

The increase in eastern border crossings may shape EU immigration policies, as border states could push for more EU-wide support and coordinated migration controls.

There will likely be more calls for shared responsibility, with wealthier EU countries encouraged to provide financial and logistical help to border states facing high migration pressure.

Some analysts also suggest that the EU might revise its Asylum and Migration Pact to reflect this shift in migration routes.

These policy updates could help speed up asylum processing for border states and improve resource allocation.

Future of EU borders

As the EU faces changing migration patterns, the differences in irregular crossings across regions highlight the need for flexible policies that address local challenges while upholding EU values.

Many in the EU see this as a call for a balanced approach that ensures security and humane border practices.

This situation reminds policymakers of the importance of protecting EU borders while honoring commitments to human rights and international protection.