Irregular border crossings into the European Union fell by 27% in the first four months of 2025. As a result, more people are focusing on the EU’s migration enforcement methods. 

Frontex reported fewer people are arriving through most routes, but the EU’s plan to grow deportation centers in non-EU countries is drawing criticism. These centers are set up to avoid court review, which has raised concerns among human rights groups.

Border crossings fall but risks remain high

Between January and April 2025, authorities recorded nearly 47,000 irregular border crossings into the EU—a 27% decrease compared to the same time in 2024.

All major migration routes saw fewer crossings. The steepest drop was along the Western Balkans route, which fell by 58%. The Central Mediterranean route, which remains the busiest, saw only a 3% decrease.

Even with fewer crossings, the journey remains deadly. Over 555 people died at sea during this time, many in weak and unsafe boats. The International Organization for Migration warned that the Mediterranean is still dangerous, even with fewer people arriving.

Central Mediterranean stays active

More than 15,700 people arrived through the Central Mediterranean route, making up about a third of all irregular entries into the EU.

Smugglers still arrange complicated trips, especially for migrants from Bangladesh. These journeys can cost as much as €13,000 and often involve organized groups that manage flights, visas, and other details.

Crossings dropped sharply in March, but better weather in April led to a nearly 40% increase compared to last year, keeping the route active and risky.

Other routes show declines

The Eastern Mediterranean had over 12,200 crossings, about one-third fewer than in 2024. The Western African route saw 10,400 arrivals, mostly from Mali, Senegal, and Guinea—also down by about 33% from last year.

In contrast, the number of people trying to reach the UK through the Channel went up by 5%, with more than 18,000 making attempts from mainland Europe.

EU eyes offshoring deportations

As irregular migration drops, EU leaders are focusing more on deportations. A new plan proposes setting up “return hubs”—camps in non-EU countries for people who can’t stay in the EU but also can’t go back to their home countries.

The idea is similar to the UK’s failed Rwanda policy and follows Italy’s move to build detention centers in Albania. Italian courts repeatedly said the plan was illegal, but the Meloni government passed a decree to label the camps as legal deportation sites.

Conditions in the Albanian centers are grim. People are kept in containers, meals are left outside, and hot water makes it hard to use the bathrooms. They have limited phone access, so contacting lawyers or family is nearly impossible.

Legal oversight faces erosion

A leaked EU Council document reveals efforts to block courts from reviewing these deportation camps.

Shared by Poland in February, the document suggests creating legal justifications for the return hubs in a “flexible way” to “prevent judicial scrutiny” that could stop the plan.

Chris Jones, Director of Statewatch, criticized the move. “If a deportation camp on foreign soil were legally sound, what would be the problem with the courts examining it?” he asked.

He called the plan “morally and politically abhorrent” and warned it sets a dangerous example.

Human rights vs political pressure

The European Commission insisted that any deals must follow international human rights laws, including the rule that bans sending people back to danger, known as non-refoulement.

However, critics argued that these promises don’t hold weight without court oversight. Italy’s case already shows how legal protections can be ignored when they get in the way of political goals.

Another challenge is finding countries willing to host these camps. The EU wants them far from its borders to prevent people from trying to return. Talks will need to weigh costs, incentives, and diplomatic ties.

Navigating Europe’s shifting border landscape

The drop in irregular border crossings into the EU suggests a short-term easing of border pressure and a shift in how people move across Europe.

For tourists and business travelers, this stability might make entry easier when the European Travel Information and Authorization System (ETIAS) starts in the last quarter of 2026, as short trips will likely face less scrutiny.

In contrast, for migrants, especially those taking the Central Mediterranean route, the journey remains dangerous. Smuggling networks continue to exploit legal gaps and charge high fees.

This contrast highlights the gap between safe, legal travel and the risky paths migrants are forced to take.

Legal barriers, quiet shifts in policy architecture

Despite fewer arrivals, EU countries are tightening migration controls. They’re doing this not just through border patrols but also by pushing new laws behind the scenes.

One recent idea is to set up offshore “return hubs” in non-EU countries like Albania. These camps would speed up deportations while avoiding court review.

These steps show a growing push to handle migration outside EU borders and limit legal challenges. This shift reflects a broader move toward stricter immigration policies, raising doubts about the EU’s commitment to human rights and pointing to a tougher approach in future policies.

At crossroads of control and compassion

Even with a drop in irregular border crossings in early 2025, the Central Mediterranean shows that migration pressure hasn’t gone away.

The EU’s push to build offshore deportation hubs—possibly beyond court oversight—marks a move toward less transparent and more contested migration policies. 

As people continue to die at sea and legal protections weaken, Europe faces a key choice between protecting human rights and tightening its borders.