Fewer travellers from outside Europe plan to visit this autumn, but the ones who do have firmer plans.
The European Travel Commission (ETC) and Interrail published their Long-Haul Travel Barometer 3/2026 on 14 October 2026. Intention to visit Europe between September and December fell from 38% to 34%, as appetite for long-haul travel eased across the board.
Bookings tell a different story. 17% of respondents have already booked flights to Europe, the same share as last year.
With fewer people planning a trip, booked travellers now make up 52% of prospective visitors, up from 42% a year earlier. Europe still accounts for around two-thirds of all long-haul travel intention.
Smaller crowd, firmer plans
The barometer surveyed travellers in Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Japan, South Korea and the United States. Overall intention to travel overseas dropped from 55% to 50%.
China leads, with 54% planning a trip to Europe, though that figure is 15% lower than a year ago. The ETC puts the decline down to the post-pandemic surge gradually normalising.
Chinese travellers are also the most likely to have booked. 37% already hold tickets, compared with 33% last year and 26% in autumn 2019.
Brazil follows at 45%, broadly unchanged. South Korea is the only market to rise, from 33% to 36%, though the change is not statistically significant.
Canada stands at 30%, with Australia and the United States at 27% each. Japan trails at 12%.
This edition used a new data collection panel. According to the ETC, long-term trends remain consistent with earlier surveys.
New faces, new scanners
More than half of this autumn’s visitors will be new to Europe. First-timers make up 53% of prospective travellers, rising to 61% from China and 57% from the United States.
Their first border crossing will look different from the one earlier visitors knew. The Entry/Exit System (EES), fully operational since 10 April 2026, registers non-EU nationals on short stays at the external borders of 29 European countries.
The system replaces passport stamping across most of Europe. It records travel-document details, the date and place of each entry and exit, and a facial image or fingerprints.
The EES applies whether or not a traveller needs a visa. The EU says it is designed to modernise border checks, gradually cut waiting times and let biometric passport holders use automated gates where available.
Among first-timers, 52% choose full package trips. Repeat visitors more often organise their journeys themselves.
Leisure drives 73% of trips. Most visitors plan to stay one to two weeks, and the largest group budgets €100 to €200 per person per day.
Three countries, one countdown
Two in three travellers (66%) plan to visit at least two countries. The average itinerary covers 2.7, rising to 3.3 among Australians.
Southern and Mediterranean Europe draws 67% of travellers. France is the most-mentioned destination at 52%, ahead of Italy at 35% and Spain at 25%.
All of those countries count towards a single cap of 90 days in any 180-day period. The EES now logs each entry and exit, and travellers can check their remaining days online at travel-europe.europa.eu.
Cyprus and Ireland remain outside the EES. Border officers there still stamp passports by hand.
To get between countries, 45% of travellers name low-cost airlines and 44% full-service carriers. Rail passes (40%) and point-to-point rail tickets (39%) follow close behind.
Shared rules, single brand
Some 39% of travellers see Europe as a single destination, including 43% of first-timers. The view is strongest among Japanese (68%) and South Korean (51%) respondents.
The ETC credits connectivity and shared frameworks, such as a common currency and visa framework, for that image. Miguel Sanz, President of the ETC, noted that “Europe’s appeal remains strong” even as intention cools.
Sanz tied the single-destination image to good connectivity and common systems. He described collaboration between destinations under Brand Destination Europe as central to that appeal.
Cost still counts
Cost remains the biggest obstacle. Among respondents not planning a long-haul trip, 44% cite high travel costs, down five percentage points.
Among long-haul travellers heading elsewhere, 30% say cost keeps them away from Europe, a drop of 12 points. Another 23% prefer a different region, while 16% lack the holiday time.
Geopolitics weighs less heavily. Only 7% mention the war in Ukraine, and 6% the conflict in the Middle East.
Next checkpoint: ETIAS
A second system is coming. The European Travel Information and Authorisation System (ETIAS) is not yet operational, and no applications are being collected.
The EU has committed to announcing a start date several months before launch. This autumn’s trips, including those already booked, take place before any ETIAS requirement applies.
Once running, ETIAS will apply only to visa-exempt nationals, unlike the EES, which covers all short-stay visitors. One travel authorisation will cover 30 countries and allow multiple entries within the same 90-in-180-day limit.
Applications will cost EUR 20, with some travellers exempt. A travel authorisation will last up to three years or until the passport expires, whichever comes first.
Most applications will be processed within minutes. Others will get a decision within four days, which can be extended by up to 14 days if more information is needed or up to 30 days if an interview is required.
The EU advises applying before buying tickets or booking accommodation. Travellers whose passport does not match their travel authorisation will not be allowed to board a flight, bus or ship.
Days spent in Cyprus count separately from the 90-day allowance. A travel authorisation will not guarantee entry, since border guards will still check that travellers meet entry conditions.
Firm plans, new checkpoints
Europe’s autumn visitors are fewer in number but further along in their plans. Most are coming for the first time and crossing several borders on one trip.
That group now faces biometric registration on arrival and a single, tracked limit on how long it can stay. When ETIAS launches, it will add a fee, an application window and a document check at boarding.
The early booking the barometer recorded already matches the EU’s advice to apply for ETIAS before booking. The next developments to follow are the EU’s ETIAS start-date announcement, whether EES waiting times fall as planned and whether bookings hold in future barometer surveys.