Fewer migrants are entering the European Union (EU) through unofficial routes, and fewer people are applying for asylum.
Some border crossings are still busy, but changes in migration patterns point to shifts in policy, seasonal trends, and new challenges for European authorities.
Fewer irregular crossings in the Eastern Mediterranean
According to Frontex, fewer people entered the EU through the Eastern Mediterranean in early 2025, with crossings down 35% to nearly 6,500, according to Frontex.
This route saw a peak of 6,700 crossings in October 2024 before numbers fell due to winter weather and stricter border controls. By February, crossings had dropped to 2,750.
Most migrants on this route came from Afghanistan, Egypt, and Sudan. Across the EU, irregular border crossings fell 25% compared to early 2024, with the Western Balkans seeing the biggest drop at 64%.
However, not all routes saw declines. Crossings in the Central Mediterranean rose 48%, reaching nearly 6,900 in early 2025. The Western African corridor remained the busiest, with 7,200 arrivals, despite a 40% decrease from the previous year.
Asylum applications in the EU drop
As fewer migrants entered the EU, the number of asylum applications also declined.
Eurostat reported that in December 2024, 62,085 people applied for asylum for the first time, a 17% drop from November (74,485) and 20% fewer than in December 2023 (77,750).
Authorities also recorded 6,560 repeat asylum applications, which was 6% lower than the previous month but 15% higher than in December 2023.
While applications decreased, asylum decisions increased. In the last three months of 2024, EU officials processed 199,975 cases, 11% more than the previous quarter. Half of these cases (99,380) resulted in approval, granting refugee status or other protection.
Who is seeking asylum?
In December 2024, Syrians were the largest group of first-time asylum seekers, with 8,345 applications, followed by Venezuelans (6,345) and Afghans (5,595).
Unaccompanied minors are a particularly vulnerable group. That month, 2,500 minors applied for asylum, mostly from Syria (635), Egypt (540), and Afghanistan (295). Germany (685), Greece (605), and Spain (265) received the most applications from them.
Where are asylum seekers going?
Four countries accounted for the majority of first-time asylum applications in December 2024:
- Germany: 12,175 applicants
- Spain: 11,160 applicants
- France: 11,085 applicants
- Italy: 9,715 applicants
These nations received 71% of all first-time applicants in the EU.
However, when adjusted for population size, Greece had the highest rate of asylum seekers (61.7 per 100,000 people), followed by Luxembourg (36.5) and Belgium (25.6).
More positive asylum decisions
Asylum approvals increased in late 2024. In the last three months of the year, the EU granted protection to 99,380 asylum seekers, 10% more than the previous quarter.
Of those granted asylum:
- 39% received refugee status
- 40% were granted subsidiary protection
- 21% received humanitarian status
Germany approved the most asylum cases, with 28,050 positive decisions, followed by Spain (22,740), France (14,845), and Greece (9,595). The largest groups granted protection were Syrians (24,320), Afghans (14,535), and Venezuelans (12,475).
Ongoing risks for migrants
Even with fewer crossings, migrants still face deadly risks. The International Organization for Migration (IOM) estimates that 248 people died at sea in January and February 2025. Last year, over 2,300 people lost their lives in the Mediterranean.
Many migrants depend on criminal networks to cross borders, making them more vulnerable to human trafficking and abuse.
Stricter entry rules and changing migration trends
Fewer irregular crossings and asylum applications come as the EU prepares to tighten travel rules for visitors, long-term travelers, and migrants.
Starting in 2026, the European Travel Information and Authorization System (ETIAS) will require visa-exempt travelers to get pre-approval before entering the Schengen Area.
This is part of the EU’s plan to strengthen border security while keeping travel smooth for approved visitors.
For short-term travelers, fewer irregular crossings may ease congestion at major entry points like Greece, Italy, and Spain. However, long-term visitors and migrants may face stricter checks under changing Schengen visa policies.
While fewer asylum applications may ease pressure on immigration systems, authorities may still increase background checks to prevent unauthorized stays.
Policy shifts as migration patterns evolve
Changes in migration are already affecting immigration policies across the EU. Countries with high asylum approval rates, like Germany, Spain, and France, may need to expand housing and support programs for accepted applicants.
Meanwhile, fewer new asylum seekers could lead some nations to adjust refugee quotas or border policies.
With irregular crossings declining, governments may shift focus to legal migration, strengthening labor programs to fill workforce gaps.
However, the rise in Central Mediterranean crossings could push EU leaders to review maritime border enforcement and search-and-rescue efforts.
Countries seeing more unaccompanied minors, such as Greece and Germany, may need stronger child protection measures to prevent exploitation and trafficking.
As migration patterns change, EU leaders will likely keep adjusting border security and asylum policies, balancing humanitarian needs with national security.
The future of migration in Europe
Fewer irregular crossings and asylum applications are changing migration patterns in Europe. Stricter border controls, seasonal changes, and new policies continue to influence movement.
However, humanitarian challenges remain. As the year goes on, EU countries must balance security with refugee protection to ensure those in need get the support they require.