Fewer people are seeking asylum and crossing borders illegally into the European Union (EU).

Recent data from Eurostat and Frontex show that asylum applications dropped by 14% in November 2024. In January 2025, illegal border crossings were 22% lower than the year before.

Fewer people seeking asylum

In November 2024, people filed 75,045 first-time asylum applications in the EU. This was down from 86,920 in October 2024 and 108,895 in November 2023. The decline suggests a slowdown in asylum requests after months of higher numbers.

Germany, Spain, Italy, and France received most of the applications, accounting for 73% of the total.

Germany had the most with 16,820, followed by Spain (14,925), Italy (11,620), and France (11,345). Greece had the highest number of asylum applications per capita, with 79.5 applicants per 100,000 people.

Syrians remained the largest group of asylum seekers (11,565), followed by Venezuelans (7,210) and Afghans (5,880). In addition, 2,820 unaccompanied minors applied for asylum, mostly from Syria, Egypt, and Afghanistan.

Irregular border crossings Fall, but risks persist

Irregular border crossings into the EU dropped to about 13,400 in January 2025, a 22% decrease from the same month in 2024.

The Western African route remained the busiest, with 4,740 arrivals, despite a 34% drop from the previous year. Most migrants came from Mali, Morocco, and Guinea.

In contrast, crossings on the Central Mediterranean route rose by 43% to 3,275, following low numbers in early 2024. The Western Balkan route saw the largest decline, falling 66% compared to January 2024.

The Eastern Mediterranean route remained active, with nearly 3,500 arrivals, though this was 21% lower than the previous year. Crossings via the Channel to the UK also fell by over 20%, with just over 2,500 detections.

Migrant fatalities at sea remain a concern

Fewer people crossed borders, but sea routes remained dangerous. The International Organization for Migration (IOM) reported that 93 migrants died crossing the Mediterranean in January.

In 2024, over 2,300 people drowned while trying to reach Europe.

Travel, migration rules face new pressures

Fewer asylum applications and border crossings could shape how the EU handles travel and migration.

Starting in mid-2026, the European Travel Information and Authorization System (ETIAS) will require visitors from visa-exempt countries to register before entering the Schengen Zone.

The drop in asylum applications may support EU policymakers’ push for stricter pre-entry screening to control who enters the region.

For long-term visitors and legal migrants, including workers and students, visa approval processes may not change right away. However, if migration patterns shift, some governments might adjust quotas or policies for economic migrants.

Less irregular migration could also make the case for a simpler legal migration system, helping EU countries attract skilled workers without adding pressure on asylum systems.

Schengen visa policies could also change. If irregular migration keeps falling, EU countries may focus more on business and tourism travelers while increasing scrutiny of applicants from high-asylum regions.

On the other hand, some countries might ease restrictions for legitimate travelers as asylum numbers decline.

EU immigration policies face conflicting pressures

With fewer asylum seekers and irregular crossings, EU countries may take different approaches to migration policy. Some may argue for easing emergency controls put in place in recent years, while others may push for stricter border measures to keep numbers low.

Austria and Hungary, which have long supported tougher asylum rules, might seek stronger migration agreements with non-EU countries to prevent future surges.

Germany, Spain, Italy, and France, which handle most asylum applications, could use this decline to review their immigration policies.

If numbers stay low, they might focus on processing backlogged cases or improving integration for those already in the system. 

These countries may also renew calls to spread asylum seekers more evenly across the EU, reopening debates on burden-sharing.

At the EU level, border security agencies like Frontex may shift focus to specific high-traffic routes rather than broad enforcement.

Meanwhile, discussions on the New Pact on Migration and Asylum, an effort to standardize asylum procedures across the EU, could gain momentum. Some policymakers may push for stricter enforcement, while others advocate for a more humanitarian approach.

Though the drop in asylum claims and border crossings offers short-term relief, the broader debate over migration policy is far from settled.

Shifting migration trends, policy responses

These changes in migration reflect border enforcement, geopolitical shifts, and economic conditions. The EU continues to adjust its policies while balancing humanitarian responsibilities with border security.

Frontex, the EU’s border agency, has 2,700 officers stationed at external borders to help national authorities control migration. As border crossings rise and fall, officials monitor trends and respond to new challenges.

Fewer asylum applications and crossings may signal a temporary slowdown or a shift in migration routes. With policies under constant review, the EU must continue managing asylum cases and securing its borders.