Irregular migration to the European Union dropped significantly in 2024, with a 40% decrease in border crossings compared to 2023.

Frontex, the European Border and Coast Guard Agency, recorded 220,700 crossings by November. This decline was driven by sharp reductions on the Western Balkans and Central Mediterranean routes, which saw decreases of 80% and 60%, respectively. 

These changes reflect stronger efforts by EU countries and their partners to address illegal migration.

Preventive actions in Tunisia and Libya had a major impact, as 92% of Central Mediterranean crossings came from these two countries. Frontex supported these efforts with 2,700 personnel focused on border security.

Western African route hits record levels

While most migration routes decreased, the Western African route hit a record high of 41,800 arrivals. Criminal networks increased activity along this route, sending more people on risky sea journeys to the Canary Islands.

Overcrowded Cayuco boats and worsening security in West Africa have driven the rise in crossings. These journeys are extremely dangerous, with over 2,000 people losing their lives at sea this year, according to the International Organization for Migration.

The Eastern Mediterranean and Eastern Land Border routes also saw increases. The Eastern Mediterranean route rose by 18%, with 64,000 crossings. The Eastern Land Border route surged by 200%, mainly due to Ukrainian men fleeing conscription.

EU orders to leave see slight growth

While border crossings declined, European Union (EU) countries issued more orders for non-EU nationals to leave. By September, 327,880 orders were issued, including 112,335 in the third quarter—a 4% rise from 2023.

Eurostat data shows that France issued the most orders, accounting for 25%, followed by Germany and Spain. These three countries also led in returning migrants to their home countries.

The top nationalities ordered to leave differed, with Algerians ranking first in the third quarter, followed by Moroccans and Syrians.

However, most returns involved Georgians, Albanians, and Turks. Returns rose by 35% compared to 2023, but many orders still go unenforced.

Stricter EU border policies affect visitors, migrants differently

For short-term travelers, stricter border controls and the introduction of the European Travel Information and Authorization System (ETIAS) in 2025 aim to make travel smoother with better monitoring.

However, these measures will likely make it harder for migrants fleeing unstable regions, as stricter enforcement reduces legal ways to enter Europe.

Migrants using dangerous routes, such as the Western African corridor, may face increased surveillance and enforcement, pushing them toward even riskier options. The growing number of deaths highlights the urgent need for safer migration pathways.

Shifting migration trends pressure EU immigration policies

This year’s migration trends will likely shape the EU’s immigration policies.

The rise in Western African route crossings and Eastern Land Border activity shows shifting migration patterns that require flexible responses. The data also shows the impact of cooperation with countries like Tunisia and Libya.

However, challenges persist. Deportations have risen, but many orders are not enforced, revealing gaps in the system. Policymakers must balance stricter migration controls with protecting asylum rights and meeting humanitarian obligations.

A complex path forward

The drop in irregular crossings shows progress in managing migration, but shifting patterns highlight how smugglers adapt and migrants persevere.

As EU countries strengthen border policies, working with neighboring regions will be key to addressing root causes and providing alternatives for people seeking refuge.

In the years ahead, the EU will face the challenge of balancing security with compassion as migration pressures continue to change.