As the European Union sees a dramatic 31% drop in irregular border crossings in early 2025, new legal scrutiny from the EU’s top court may complicate member states’ attempts to outsource asylum processing to so-called “safe countries.”

Meanwhile, over 4.3 million displaced Ukrainians remain under temporary protection across the bloc, underscoring the ongoing humanitarian stakes behind the continent’s tightening migration stance.

Border crossings drop across major routes

Fewer people are entering Europe illegally. In the first quarter of 2025, irregular crossings at the EU’s external borders fell by 31%, dropping to nearly 33,600 from the same period last year​. 

This decline spread across all major migration routes. The Western Balkans saw the sharpest fall, down by 64%, while the Eastern Land Border showed a more modest 8% dip.

Greece, Cyprus, and Bulgaria remained the busiest route, with nearly 10,000 migrants arriving despite a 29% decrease. The Western African and Eastern Mediterranean pathways also saw thousands of arrivals, mostly from Afghanistan, Egypt, Sudan, Mali, and Bangladesh.

Meanwhile, poor weather and tighter maritime controls helped cut Central Mediterranean entries by three-quarters in March alone.

“We’re seeing active efforts against smuggling networks,” said Frontex spokesperson Chris Borowski. “Stronger cooperation, especially in the Balkans, is playing a role.”

More deaths at sea despite fewer crossings

The sea remains perilous. The International Organization for Migration reported 385 migrant deaths at sea in just the first three months of 2025.

Though total crossings are down, the journey remains deadly for many, especially those relying on smugglers and unsafe boats.

Temporary protection stays high for Ukrainian refugees

The war in Ukraine continues to shape migration in Europe. By February 2025, over 4.3 million Ukrainians held temporary protection in the EU.

Germany alone hosted more than 1.1 million people—over a quarter of the EU total. Poland and Czechia followed closely.

Nearly half of those protected were adult women, while minors made up nearly a third. Adult men accounted for less than 25%.

Despite the overall drop in new arrivals, the number of Ukrainians under protection continues to rise steadily, especially in Germany and Czechia.

The EU extended temporary protection measures until March 2026, keeping legal shields in place for millions fleeing war.

EU court demands stricter safe country definitions

While the border tightens, so do the rules. The European Court of Justice has issued strong guidance on how countries label “safe third countries”—those to which migrants can be sent for asylum processing.

An Advocate General of the court ruled that while EU nations may create national lists of “safe” countries, they must explain their decision with documented evidence.

This opinion came after an Italian court challenged the legality of sending migrants to Albania under Italy’s new bilateral deal. The court refused to validate the detention of migrants sent there from “safe” countries, arguing that the designation lacked transparency.

Governments must provide the courts with the sources used to decide which countries are “safe.” The opinion states that designating a country cannot shield it from legal challenge. Otherwise, the entire EU asylum process would lose meaning.

Push to outsource asylum faces legal wall

The ruling strikes at the heart of controversial asylum outsourcing plans. Italy’s deal with Albania, and the UK’s similar deal with Rwanda, face legal scrutiny.

Italy plans to send asylum seekers rescued at sea to Albanian centers. The court’s guidance, though not yet binding, warns that legal shortcuts will not hold up if basic rights are not upheld.

Transfers to Albania are technically on hold pending a final ruling, but around 40 migrants are expected to be moved this week anyway.

Political climate grows harsher

Behind the falling numbers and rising rules is a hardening political stance. A new German coalition government is backing tougher migration rules.

Across the EU, plans include faster deportations, stricter penalties for rejected applicants, and the creation of return hubs outside EU borders​.

Some countries are tightening internal Schengen borders. The EU Commission is also working to fast-track reforms to asylum procedures, making it harder for migrants to delay removal through legal appeals.

Border controls tighten ahead of travel system overhaul

For short-term travelers and long-term visitors, this wave of legal and political change in the EU carries growing significance. The drop in irregular crossings and new scrutiny over asylum designations coincide with preparations for the rollout of the European Travel Information and Authorization System (ETIAS), scheduled for implementation in 2026.

ETIAS will require visa-exempt travelers from over 60 countries to apply online for pre-travel authorization before entering the Schengen Area.

While ETIAS targets low-risk visitors, the system reflects a broader EU trend—strengthening border security and tightening entry procedures. Increased focus on pre-screening and automated risk assessments under ETIAS will mirror the legal push to vet “safe country” designations.

Migrants from conflict or poverty-stricken regions may face tougher scrutiny as EU states balance humanitarian obligations with rising political pressure to reduce irregular entries.

The court’s opinion on safe third countries adds a legal safeguard for migrants, yet also complicates return deals with countries outside the EU, possibly delaying decisions for asylum seekers. 

This could slow border procedures at overstretched entry points, indirectly impacting tourists or business travelers entering during peak periods—especially as the Schengen visa system undergoes upgrades for biometric and security checks.

Legal pressure forces shift in national strategy

The EU Court’s intervention reshapes how member states approach immigration at a structural level.

Governments can no longer rely solely on domestic legislation to declare a country “safe” for returning asylum seekers. They must now document and justify those claims—something that challenges politically driven migration agreements, like Italy’s Albania deal.

This creates a ripple effect. Countries will likely revisit or pause return partnerships with non-EU states. Deportation hubs and offshore asylum processing models may face extended legal challenges.

In the short term, this could stall new agreements. In the long term, it might push the EU to build a centralized, transparent framework for evaluating safety, forcing alignment across national borders.

Germany’s tougher migration posture, and the EU’s proposed penalties for non-returning rejected applicants, signal an intention to deter irregular migration. 

However, the court’s opinion insists that these efforts respect legal due process, anchoring immigration control to judicial accountability.

The result? A slower, more legally cautious evolution of border policy—one that may frustrate hardliners but protect the EU’s legal foundation.

Europe’s migration tightrope

As irregular crossings into the EU drop by a third and over 4.3 million displaced Ukrainians continue to receive temporary protection, Europe finds itself balancing control with compassion. 

The EU’s top court now demands transparency from member states labeling countries “safe” for migrant returns—a move that could reshape how future asylum policies are implemented.

While enforcement has tightened and cooperation with non-EU countries expands, the human toll persists, with hundreds still dying at sea in pursuit of safety. 

These developments reflect a region grappling with migration not just as a political dilemma, but as a test of its values.

What remains is a question that transcends statistics: can Europe secure its borders without closing its heart?