Demand for overseas travel is holding firm, even as conflict in the Middle East and the rising cost of living squeeze household budgets.
New consumer research from ABTA, the UK travel trade body, showed that 64% of people plan to travel abroad in the next 12 months.
The findings point to resilient demand heading into summer. ABTA said that holidays remain a spending priority that most people refuse to give up.
Tanzer welcomes resilient demand
Intention to travel has softened a little. The 64% figure is down from 70% the previous year.
Mark Tanzer, ABTA chief executive, said the conflict had hit both operations and people’s willingness to spend.
“Global and economic uncertainty pose challenges for any business, with travel often feeling them more acutely,” Tanzer noted.
He added that the conflict “has not only had an operational impact, [it] has also affected consumer confidence, both when it comes to travel and confidence in their finances.”
Even so, he struck an optimistic tone about the months ahead. “The appetite and interest to travel remains, and we continue to be hopeful for a strong summer season,” he said.
Tanzer also pointed to competition keeping prices in check. He expects that pressure to mean that customers “continue to get good value for their money.”
Holidays survive budget axe
When money gets tight, holidays are the last thing to go. People said that they would cut other treats first.
Eating out tops the list of things to cut back on, named by 55% of respondents. Leisure activities follow at 45%, then clothes and shoes at 41%.
Holidays sit well below those. Just 33% would cut trips abroad, and 23% would cut UK breaks.
The appetite to spend is there, too. A third of people (34%) plan to spend more on holidays over the coming year.
Bookers play waiting game
Many travellers are holding off before they commit. ABTA expects a strong late-booking pattern through the summer, with trips snapped up just weeks before departure.
Almost a third of summer travellers (30%) plan to book two to four weeks ahead. A further 10% said that they will leave it for less than a fortnight.
Delays are widespread. Of those planning a trip in the next 12 months, 38% have put off booking.
The reasons vary, though the cost looms large. The top factor is waiting to see what happens with flight prices, cited by 43%.
The Middle East conflict comes next at 36%, ahead of waiting to see if the cost of living improves at 33%. Concern over holiday costs sits at 31%, while jet fuel availability worries fewer people at 26%.
Living costs keep biting
Holidays may top the spending list, but they are not immune to tighter budgets. Cost of living is the single biggest thing putting people off booking, named by 31%.
That suggests that some who plan to stay home were already deterred by household bills. The pressure shows up in how much people expect to spend.
One in five (20%) said that they will spend less on holidays over the next 12 months. That is up from 15% in the previous survey.
Behind that shift sits the rising cost of everyday life. More than half (54%) are cutting spending because of higher household bills, up from 47% in the last survey.
A sector worth billions
The numbers matter beyond the travel trade. ABTA said that the findings should give the Government and the industry pause.
Outbound travel generates £52bn a year for the UK economy. It also supports more than 818,000 jobs.
Tanzer framed the sector as a major national employer facing a tough run. He pointed to rising business rates and air passenger duty on top of the conflict and its uncertainty.
He called for closer ties with the government to ease the strain. “At times like these, collaboration and an open dialogue with government is key to Ministers and officials understanding the pressures all parts of the industry are under,” he said.
Border systems enter picture
UK travellers are considered non-EU nationals when visiting most of Europe. That puts the 64% who plan trips abroad squarely within the reach of Europe’s new border rules whenever they head to the continent.
The Entry/Exit System (EES) has been fully operational since 10 April 2026. UK holidaymakers travelling this summer face biometric registration, a facial image and/or fingerprints, the first full season under the new regime.
ABTA’s expected surge in bookings will test that system at its busiest. Peak summer crowds mean peak pressure at the border.
The European Travel Information and Authorisation System (ETIAS) starts later, in the last quarter of 2026. It falls after the summer the research covers, so it will not touch this season’s trips.
It will, though, shape bookings made later in the year and into 2027. Together, the two systems change what travel to Europe looks like for British tourists.
Late bookers face tighter squeeze
The late-booking habit ABTA records sits awkwardly with ETIAS guidance. Travellers are advised to apply well ahead of departure.
The research shows the opposite instinct. Among summer travellers, 30% plan to book two to four weeks out and 10% leave it under a fortnight.
Most ETIAS applications clear within minutes. Some take up to four days, or up to 30 days if an interview is required, which could catch out the very latest bookers once the system is live.
Cost is the other factor. The ETIAS application costs €20, a small sum per traveller, but another line on the bill for families.
That lands at a sensitive moment. Cost of living already deters 31% of people from booking, and 20% intend to spend less on holidays over the coming year.
Smooth borders, or fresh friction, could tip the mood. Delays under EES, or confusion as ETIAS begins, risk feeding the same caution that has 38% of travellers already holding off.
Summer hangs in balance
The picture ABTA paints is one of demand that bends but does not break. Holidaymakers are cautious about cost and timing, yet reluctant to give up their trips abroad.
A slight dip in intention accompanies a clear refusal to cut holidays from the budget. The question now is whether the expected wave of late bookings delivers the strong season the industry is banking on.