Irregular migration to the European Union (EU) has decreased overall this year, but more people are still arriving from North Africa across the Mediterranean.
This trend is fueling renewed disagreements among member states over how to divide responsibility for asylum seekers and deportations.
During a meeting in Luxembourg, EU interior ministers discussed how to carry out the new Migration and Asylum Pact.
The talks highlighted growing tensions between southern countries asking for more support and northern members unwilling to take in relocated migrants or share return duties.
Overall migration drop, Mediterranean routes still active
Frontex, the European Border and Coast Guard Agency, reported 133,400 irregular entries into the EU during the first nine months of 2025, a 22% drop compared to the same period last year.
The biggest decreases were seen along the Eastern borders, the Western Balkans, and the Atlantic route from Africa, where crossings fell by up to 58%. The Mediterranean, however, remained an exception.
Between January and September, about 50,900 people arrived through the Central Mediterranean route, a small increase from 2024. Departures from Tunisia went down, but those from Libya rose by 50%.
Frontex also noted a 28% rise along the Western Mediterranean route, with almost three-quarters of arrivals coming from Algeria. The agency said that this shift was partly due to Morocco’s tighter border controls, which pushed more crossings through Algeria.
Brussels to host Libyan authorities amid rising departures
Rising departures from Libya led the European Commission to invite officials from both Tripoli and Benghazi to Brussels for talks on October 15 and 16. It was the first time the EU hosted representatives from both sides of Libya to discuss migration management.
Frontex and Commission officials also met with the Libyan delegation earlier in Warsaw on October 14.
This comes after years of criticism over EU funding for Libya’s coast guard, which humanitarian groups accused of using violence against migrants and working with smuggling networks.
In July, eastern commander General Khalifa Haftar expelled an EU delegation that included Home Affairs Commissioner Magnus Brunner and Italian Interior Minister Matteo Piantedosi.
The incident highlighted how fragile the EU’s cooperation with Libya remains on both sides of its political divide.
Asylum Pact implementation stalls ahead of deadline
EU efforts to advance the Migration and Asylum Pact have stalled, just months before its planned rollout in June 2026.
The pact, designed to balance “responsibility and solidarity,” requires all 27 member states to contribute—either by accepting relocated migrants, offering financial aid, or supporting external border cooperation.
However, during the meeting in Luxembourg, ministers disagreed on how those commitments should be enforced.
Belgian Minister for Asylum and Migration Anneleen Van Bossuyt said Belgium’s reception centers were already full and that the country would limit its role to financial support.
She added that this would depend on frontline states continuing to apply the Dublin Regulation, which assigns asylum responsibility to the first EU country of entry.
“Solidarity and responsibility go hand in hand; every country must apply the Dublin rules,” she told reporters.
Swedish Interior Minister Johan Forssell supported that view, saying that “without Dublin there can be no solidarity.” He pointed out that Sweden had already taken in many asylum seekers over the past decade despite its smaller population.
Poland, however, refused to join relocation efforts. Interior Minister Marcin Kierwiński said Warsaw “will never accept solutions that could be potentially dangerous for its citizens,” and repeated Poland’s call for EU funding to strengthen its eastern border.
Financial contributions or relocations
Under the Pact’s solidarity mechanism, member states can either accept relocated asylum seekers or pay a financial contribution—reportedly €20,000 per person not relocated—into an EU fund that supports frontline countries.
Southern members like Italy, Greece, and Spain continue to push for mandatory relocations to ease the strain on their systems, while northern countries prefer financial contributions or funding for projects in non-EU states.
Spain’s Interior Minister Fernando Grande-Marlaska said that Madrid was open to “either relocations or financing projects to manage irregular migration and promote legal pathways.”
Home Affairs Commissioner Magnus Brunner confirmed that the Commission had delayed the release of key implementation documents for the solidarity mechanism, citing “ongoing consultations.”
He called the delay temporary and said “member states remain committed to cooperation,” though divisions among them were clear during the meeting.
Return policy faces same North-South divide
Another sticking point is the proposed Return Regulation, which includes creating a European Return Warrant that would make deportation orders valid across all EU countries.
The system was originally meant to be voluntary, but the Commission plans to make it mandatory by 2027. The goal is to speed up the return of rejected asylum seekers to their home or transit countries.
Southern countries like Spain supported a quick rollout, while Belgium and Sweden worried that automatic recognition could create extra work for states dealing with large numbers of migrants moving within the EU.
“It is easy to impose an obligation to leave, but if those people move to another country like Belgium, we would be obliged to carry out the actual returns,” Van Bossuyt warned.
Denmark, which currently holds the rotating EU Council presidency, wants to secure a negotiating mandate by December. This would include setting up “return hubs” to better coordinate deportations.
Commissioner Brunner said he was confident that “a compromise can be found,” but admitted that the long-standing divide between first-entry and destination countries “remains difficult to bridge.”
Member states warn vs. “fragmented solidarity”
Officials in Brussels are concerned that the lack of agreement on the Migration Pact could weaken its credibility before it takes effect in 2026.
Diplomats have privately warned that “fragmented solidarity” could repeat the mistakes of past efforts, such as the 2015 relocation plan, which relocated fewer than one-third of the asylum seekers it targeted.
Belgium and Sweden argued that solidarity should depend on compliance with the Dublin Regulation, while southern countries say the rule unfairly burdens states that receive most arrivals.
Poland and Hungary still reject any mandatory quota system, insisting that migration control should remain under national authority.
EU balances enforcement with rights obligations
As the Commission pushes for stronger returns and partnerships with non-EU countries, it faces growing pressure to uphold international refugee law and the EU Charter of Fundamental Rights.
Commissioner Brunner admitted that “security and humanitarian considerations must go together,” but defended cooperation with countries like Libya and Tunisia as “pragmatic engagement” needed to prevent deaths at sea.
Members of the European Parliament have called for tighter oversight of EU-funded operations in North Africa and want return agreements to include binding human rights safeguards.
From border controls to digital screening
Rising tensions over migration management and the uneven drop in irregular entries are expected to shape how the EU rolls out new border systems like the European Travel Information and Authorization System (ETIAS) and the Entry-Exit System (EES).
Both aim to improve traveler screening and monitoring within the Schengen Area, showing how migration control is becoming more connected to digital border management.
Starting in late 2026, ETIAS will require travelers from 59 visa-exempt countries to apply for a €20 travel authorization before visiting 30 European states for up to 90 days in any 180-day period.
The authorization will last for three years and be linked to the traveler’s passport. It will not replace border checks but will let EU authorities screen visitors in advance using security and migration databases.
According to the EU, ETIAS does not guarantee entry; border guards will still make the final decision upon arrival.
In practice, tourists and business travelers may face more detailed pre-travel checks but faster processing once approved. The EES, which has launched last October 12, automatically logs each traveler’s entry and exit using biometric data.
Together, the systems aim to reduce overstays and illegal re-entry—issues that remain politically sensitive as migration through the Mediterranean continues.
For long-term residents and legal migrants, the shift toward digital borders highlights the EU’s broader goal of separating lawful travel from irregular migration.
Although ETIAS and EES target short-term visitors rather than visa holders or asylum seekers, the data they gather may later influence risk assessments and enforcement decisions that shape migration policy.
For asylum seekers and undocumented migrants, these changes could further restrict access to Europe.
As the Commission tightens return procedures and deepens cooperation with countries like Libya, the growing use of automated border systems may make it harder to cross into the Schengen Area undetected or to gain legal status after arrival.
Migration debate as a crossroads
The EU’s effort to balance border control with humanitarian duty has reached a turning point. While migration is slowing along most routes, the Mediterranean remains a painful reminder of how limited current cooperation is—and how urgently reform is needed.
The rollout of the Migration and Asylum Pact in mid-2026 will test whether member states can turn their promises of solidarity into real action, despite sharp political divisions over burden-sharing and deportations.
For both citizens and policymakers, the real question now is not whether Europe can manage migration, but whether it can do so together—and on fair terms.