Applications for asylum in the European Union (EU) and associated countries dropped sharply in the first half of 2025, driven by a collapse in claims from Syrian nationals following political changes in their home country.
The European Union Agency for Asylum (EUAA) reported that 399,000 applications were lodged between January and June, a decline of 114,000 compared with the same period in 2024.
This represents a year-on-year reduction of 23 percent across the EU+, which includes the 27 member states plus Switzerland and Norway.
Syrian applications decline after regime change
Syrians had been the largest nationality group seeking protection in Europe for more than a decade. That changed in early 2025 after the fall of the Assad regime in December 2024.
With new authorities in Damascus pledging stability and reconstruction, the number of Syrians applying for asylum in Europe fell to 25,000 in the first half of the year — a drop of two-thirds, or 66 percent, compared with 2024.
The EUAA noted that most member states have kept Syrian cases on hold during this transition, which contributed to the sharp fall in recognition rates. Some withdrawals were also recorded as negative decisions in national statistics.
Shifts in main destination countries
The decline in Syrian arrivals altered the distribution of asylum seekers across Europe.
Germany, long the top destination for protection claims, lost its leading position after a 43% fall in applications. France and Spain both received more requests than Germany, with 78,000 and 77,000 respectively.
Italy followed with 64,000, while Greece registered 27,000, the highest number per capita with one application for every 380 residents.
France’s figures remained stable compared with the previous year, while Spain recorded a 13% fall and Italy a 25% decline. By contrast, Venezuelan nationals lodged almost all of their claims in Spain, where applications from that group rose by 29%.
Venezuelans emerge as largest group
Venezuelans became the top nationality applying for asylum in Europe in early 2025, overtaking both Syrians and Afghans. The EUAA recorded 49,000 applications from Venezuelans, a 31% increase year-on-year.
Most of these claims — 93% — were submitted in Spain, where common language and an established diaspora encourage settlement. Spanish authorities also tend to grant Venezuelans a national form of protection rather than EU-wide refugee status.
Afghans ranked second with 42,000 applications, accounting for about one in ten of all claims. Their numbers, however, have been gradually declining since 2023.
Other notable groups included Bangladeshis and Turks, both of whom recorded significant decreases: 17,000 applications each, down 26% and 41% respectively.
Ukrainians also increased their filings to 16,000, up 29%, though this number was minor compared with the 4.3 million Ukrainians under temporary protection in Europe at the end of June.
Record low recognition rate
Despite falling applications, protection outcomes were at their lowest on record. The overall EU+ recognition rate — the share of positive asylum decisions — stood at 25% for the first half of 2025, the lowest semi-annual or annual figure ever reported.
The EUAA said that this was not the result of a stricter interpretation of protection needs, but reflected procedural delays and withdrawals in the Syrian caseload.
Recognition remained very low for some groups: 4% for Bangladeshis, 10% for Pakistanis, and 10% for Nigerians.
Other nationalities saw significant shifts upward. The rate for Malians increased from 41% in 2021 to 79%, while Haitians recorded 86% in early 2025, compared with just 10% in 2020. Nearly all Haitian applicants filed in France, where their numbers rose by 57% year-on-year.
At the end of June, 918,000 cases were pending at first instance across the EU+, reflecting the backlog despite declining new arrivals.
Policy implications, visa discussions
The EUAA reported that about half of all asylum claims in the first six months of 2025 came from nationalities with low recognition rates of 20% or less.
Under Regulation (EU) 2024/1348, which comes into effect in June 2026, these claims may be processed under accelerated procedures.
Meanwhile, European institutions are debating how visa rules affect asylum flows.
Around one quarter of asylum applications in Europe are lodged by citizens of countries that already have visa-free access to the Schengen area. Venezuelans and Colombians form the majority of such applicants.
The European Parliament is scheduled to vote next month on a stronger and more flexible mechanism for suspending visa-free travel.
Changing dynamics for travelers, migrants
The fall in asylum applications is expected to affect travelers and migrants in different ways.
For short-term visitors, the decline comes just ahead of the introduction of the European Travel Information and Authorization System (ETIAS), which will begin operations in late 2026.
ETIAS will require citizens from 59 visa-exempt countries, including the United States, Canada, and Australia, to obtain prior authorization before traveling to 30 European countries.
While the system is designed for tourism and business travelers, its launch is part of a broader tightening of entry monitoring, which also influences how border authorities approach irregular migration.
For long-term migrants and asylum seekers, the fall in applications, especially from Syrians, may signal reduced pressure on national asylum systems.
But with recognition rates at historic lows, many new arrivals from countries with low chances of approval could see their cases fast-tracked under accelerated procedures starting in 2026.
This creates a clearer divide between travelers entering for short stays under ETIAS and migrants seeking protection under asylum law.
The discussion in the European Parliament on strengthening visa suspension mechanisms also ties these developments together.
Venezuelans and Colombians, who benefit from visa-free access to the Schengen area, accounted for a significant share of asylum claims in 2025.
Any future changes to visa policies could directly alter mobility patterns for both short-term visitors and those considering long-term settlement through asylum.
EU’s asylum picture in transition
The EU’s asylum figures matter because they show how conflicts, political shifts, and crises in other parts of the world quickly affect Europe. The decline eases pressure in some places but raises new questions about how to handle changing migration patterns.
The drop in EU asylum applications leaves an open question: will lighter pressure on some states speed up decisions, or will new waves of applicants create fresh challenges?
For travelers, migrants, and decision-makers, understanding these shifts is essential. How should Europe get ready for the next change in asylum trends?